Energy Forecasting – An Introduction
A state energy forecast is a measurement and estimate of Past, Present and Future pattern of energy supply and demand within a state.
The baseline or business as usual forecast illustrates what state energy is look like in the absence of additional policies beyond what is already planned.
Why develops an Energy Forecast?
States develops an energy forecast to –
- Understand how much energy within their jurisdiction was and is projected to be supplied and used.
- Estimate energy related green gas and air pollution emission.
- Set specific target with respect to energy usages such as renewable energy or efficiency targets.
- Analyze action and measure that could help to achieve targets and goals.
Methods to evaluate for an Energy Forecast
Step 1. Define objective and constraint of forecast
To obtain general energy profile or to conduct a detailed analysis, factor to be considered
- Short term vs Long term
- Bottom up vs Top down
- Level of rigour necessary
- Availability of financial labour and time to complete forecast
- Amount of energy readily available.
Step 2. Develop historic baseline
Compile historical energy consumption and generator data into baseline profile.
- Energy consumption/demand data by a sector.
- Energy generation/supply data by fuel.
- Data sources are:
- Public utility commission
- State energy offices
- Department of transport
Step 3.Choose method to forecast the energy baseline
- Basic Method-
- Compilation of individual forecast by others. this method is very easy to gather the data but some time complete data are not provided by commission.
- Adoption of complete forecast used by others, this method mainly used for high level preliminary and quick analysis. It is also very easy to collect the data but not valid for a long time.
- Linear or Non-linear extrapolation of baseline. it is a quick and more robust data analysis method but may not capture the impact of significant changes. Its mainly used to calculate the high level simple escalation factor from history.
- Sophisticated Method
- Time Series Models – Forcast future event based on known past event and pattern.
- End User Models – Develops load profile for consumer based on historical demand, survey.
- Economical Models – Complex and robust analysis includes, populations economics, energy relationship structural changes.
- Electricity Dispatch Models – Determine how existing system will meet projected demand.
- Capacity Expansion Models – Determine how energy system will change and capacity will be built in response to meet demand.
Step 4. Determine assumption and review data.
Step 5. Apply methods and models
Step 6. Evaluate forecast output